The recent sale of a center swoosh hoodie on the virtual flea for $3,600 has a lot of people wondering about the current state of the vintage market. In the past year, we have seen pieces selling for crazy prices, such as the Disney Aladdin genie tee which sold for $6,000, as well as the Sotheby’s grateful dead tee that just sold for over $17,000.

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Is this irrational exuberance in the marketplace or just a taste of the prices we may see in the future? 

To outsiders, the market as a whole may appear to be a repeat of other prominent bubbles in history, such as the Tulip Mania in the 1600’s, in which people were paying the price of a mansion for a single tulip bulb.

However the current state of the vintage market differs in several ways. Vintage clothing is a speculative asset, meaning that the potential value is only limited by the price one is willing to pay for it. Unlike tulips, each item is entirely unique and no more can be created. Tee shirts depicting our favorite cultural triumphs such as influential movies, artworks, and music allow us to represent what we’re passionate about without having to say a word. 

From an economic perspective, vintage items have a fixed supply that is only getting smaller year over year. Scarcity in the marketplace naturally gives way to higher prices, and higher prices bring more attention to the market as a whole. This positive feedback loop is one of the essential forces growing the market. Demand for the most sought after grails not only increases the value of said item, but also increases demand in the broader market.

One of the main catalysts for increases in demand is celebrity influence. Take the center swoosh for example. Ever since Travis Scott wore the oatmeal colorway, prices have exponentially grown for not just that colorway, but many others as well.  The demand from collectors both domestic and abroad have also heavily influenced the growth in prices. In 2020, the collectibles market was valued at $370 billion and poised to grow to over $450 billion by 2028. Items such as baseball cards, Pokemon cards, and comic books have reached prices in the millions for the most lucrative items.

Because vintage clothing derives its value from sentimental attachment, there is reason to believe that the rarest tees could eventually reach similar valuations as more collectors enter the market.

With the recent exponential growth in prices, it is safe to assume that we are in the midst of a bubble in the vintage market. However, seeing as though this is a relatively untapped market, there is a high chance that we are only on the cusp of the valuations we will see in the future. The vintage market will most likely not reach its true potential value until more investors see these items as speculative assets that will continue increasing in value due to their scarcity as well as cultural significance. 

What are your thoughts on the vintage market? How much longer do we have left? Or will vintage never go back to what it used to be? Let us know in the comments below! We’d love to hear your thoughts and opinions

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Writeup by: @unknownthreads aka The Vintage Economist.